Book: 20230807 to 20231004, "Destined For War" by Graham Allison

20230807 - Introduction

I am curious whether Graham Allison recognize that China is under oligarchy ruling with exclusive political  and economical institutions.

What if China insist to occupy Taiwan?

Part 1 : The rise of China

20230808 - "The biggest player in the history of the world"

Something is not right. Possibily the numbers are correct, but what do those number mean?

Oligalichy politics is exclusive political institution. It means the economical growth is not sustainable. It means no real allies, and no stable internal relationship, and no production creativity.

Fragile economy are more likely invest in stock options. It may make very good money in short term, but more likely lose everything in long term. It's 1.4 billion people scale stock options gambling.

The best way to measure the real economical strength of a country, I think, is the production of median income and population, as wealth gap means not sustainable.

For US, it's 328 million * 20 thousand = 6.56 trillion dollar

For China, it's 1400 million * 2 thousand = 2.8 trillion dollar

Part 2 : Lessons from history

20230809 - Athens vs. Sparta

Finally I learned the history of ancient Greece!

Firstly Sparta and Athens teamed up against Persia (481 BC and 479 BC), then 30 year peace treaty, then 27 year war: Peloponnesian War (431–404 BC), then Greece civilization basically collapsed. After that, it's the rise of ancient Rome.

There were not democracy in both sides. It was all oligarchy.

Maybe because of the poor communication and transportation, Sparta and Athens didn't talk to each other much, and so don't know each other much. Or else, the war was preventable, at least for a few more decades.

China believes that they own Taiwan, but Taiwan doesn't think so, and it is an ally of US.

Besides, China is a fascist country, and US is a democracy country.

China doesn't have any real ally, and US has a lot of ally.

Is the war between them avoidable? If China believes that they don't have any other choice, the war will break.

The red line is that Taiwan announce going independant officially and diplomacily.

Or when CCP cannot maintain it's governing in China.

20230814 - Five hundred years

With a Hammer in Hand Everything Looks Like a Nail.

There is something wrong with this book.

A lot of wars are related to rising and dominent power, but that's far from the only reason or the major reason.

For example,

1. It only happens with oligarchy states;

2. As the elite group is the one how benefit from land expansion, they were the one who supported war;

3. In the past 500 years, economy is zero sum game. So, more land means more wealth;

Nowadays, 

1. Western countries have become democracy and welfare state;

2. More land means more population, which means heavier to government;

3. The chief leader of the government cannot stay in the position for long time, so they don't want to take risk making war.

Is it still right to compare the current conflicts among states with thucydides trap theory?

20230817 - Britain vs. Germany

Is there some standards to check whether the intention of some country is justice? The median income of all local residents.

We must consider the median income besides of other factors.

Should we allow China PRC to take over Taiwan? The median income of the former is less than 20% of the latter. So, no.

Pre-emptive strike could bring in extra-gain, but normally that is wrong in the current world. Because of the existence of satellites, that's almost not possible anyway.

Part 3 : A gathering storm

20230828 - Imagine China were just like us

Is it all about "law of the jungle"? If the median income of China is higher than neighbours, I do support China to follow Monroe Doctrine.

Good to know how US expanded more than 100 years ago. Even at that time, Latin America nations are all controlled by Oligarchy groups. For normal people, I believe, the intervenes from US were more positive.

20230829 - What Xi's China wants

Xi has big plan. He believe there were a lot of critical errors in the previous governances of China, but forgot those governances gave China 40 years rapid growth. Or he may believe that China is in different position now, so should act differently.

I think Xi and Liu He have two problems, which will lead to the collapse of China economy.

1. They don't understand economy and creativity.

He doesn't know where wealth come from, and where creativity come from.

The source of problem is oligarchy group. To solve the problem, democracy is the only solution.

2. They don't really care about people's living standard.

Or that's not with top priority. He believe people should sacrifice some economical interest for a while for the country. But how long is that "a while"?

20230910 - Clash of civilizations

So far, I feel that this book is similar to the book from "Principles" by Ray Dalio: it's based on history, but the current society has changed so much that we should not judage based on the past experiences.

For example, social welfare and automation.

It's not clash of different civilizations, but of a low level civilization and a high level civilization.

I agree with Graham Allison with the last paragraph: China will initiate millitary action when its growth trend is going down. That is now(202309). What will China do?

20230911 - From here to war

Graham Allison doesn't believe that democracy is advantage, compare to oligarchy institutions. Why?

At the moment, the unemployment rate in China is very high. Together with the deeply troubled debt problem, it seems that China may crash without impact from other countries.

The threat is real, but not so serious in the near future. And, I believe that US and even Japan can win the war easily. US has much advanced rocket, satellite and AI technology.

Part 4 : Why war is not inevitable

20230924 - Twelve clues for peace

Why USSR failed in Cold War? It cannot deliver the life improvement to their people. Economy is the core of the problem.

Same suits the relationship between China and USA. If China refused to buy national debt from USA, FED can buy it instead. It's not a problem at all. But if USA refused to buy goods from China, China is in big trouble.

The failure of the theory from book "The Great Illusion" tells us that interconnected economy doesn't guarantee peace. Especially to Oligarchy countries. Rulers believe that they can get long term benefit through sacrificing short term benefit, by raising wars.

The existence of rogue countries(huge external stress) is important. Or else, USA will eventually kill itself by political correctness.

Human civilization needs rogue countries, just like our body needs harmful germs, and individuals need frustrations to grow.

20230924 - Where do we go from here?

All four suggestions are meaningless, useless and infeasible, in my opinion. I feel that Graham Allison never touched the real world.

What's the major difference between US and China? One is democracy, and the other is Oligarchy. This is not something can both side can tolerate.

How to measure the power of a country? Not GDP, but how talented people flow. Wealth comes from creativity, and creativity comes from democracy(relatively fair environment).

I think trade war and anti globalization / regionalization are much better solutions.

20230924 - Conclusion

Of course China and USA pay more attention to their domestic issues, but that doesn't help with the international conflicts.

20231004 - Apprendix 1&2

Graham Allison ignored the foundation of those wars. By the end of 19th century, UK and other western European countries got democracy! That's the goal of civilization!

Or else, Europe would be like China 2200 years ago: a lot of wars, then got united by the most barbaric Qin Dynasty.

It's interesting to know the Europe modern history.

Based on all those 16 cases except the Cold War, if both sides are democracy countries, then it's quite possible to stay in peace. Or else, no.

If in Falklands War Argentina dared to attack UK, surely that China will attack US. When the economy is down, war is a good distraction.