Book: 20250830 to 20251106, "Average is over" by Tyler Cowen

PART I: Welcome to the Hyper-Meritocracy
20250831 - 1: Work and Wages in iWorld

Marriages, families, businesses, countries, cities, and regions all will see a greater split in material outcomes; namely, they will either rise to the top in terms of quality or make do with unimpressive results. p4

Well said. How about our health, including physical health and mental health?

Technological progress slows down when there are too many people who have the right to say no, but software in general gets around a lot of the traditional veto points. p17

This is a real problem for self-driving cars, but is it a problem for humanoid robots in factories?

It sounds a little silly, but making high earners feel better in just about every part of their lives will be a major source of job growth in the future. p23

A lot of wealthy people will like that. But that's dumb.

Budda was wealthy, and didn't need anyone to make him feel better.

20250904 - 2: The Big Earners and the Big Losers

It sounds a little silly, but making high earners feel better in just about every part of their lives will be a major source of job growth in the future. p23
For example, building luxury properties for wealthy people.

But there are only that many wealthy people, maybe less than 5%.

20250905 - 3: Why Are So Many People Out of Work?

The most competent companies are best at automating production.
Then less employees are needed to produce the same amount of goods and services.
AI is accelerating this grand social transformation.

After China joined the WTO, countless American companies moved their factory production lines to China.

Many people accuse American entrepreneurs of being short-sighted and profit-driven, while overlooking the series of policies introduced by the U.S. government that undermined American manufacturing.

Part II:What Games Are Teaching Us

20250925 - 4: New Work, Old Game

The gain in these cases will go to the hardy, those who can manage stress and embarrassment, but not necessarily to people who act like robots. p73

Why?

20250926 - 5: Our Freestyle Future

Vasik Rajlich says that, to date, the gap between the programs and the top Freestyle teams has stayed more or less constant. The human element really does add something, at least for the time being, although he too wonders how long this will remain the case. p81

It turns out that lasted for around 4 years. From 2005 to 2008, without AI.

In all those cases, it matters more and more what workers have learned from the computer, or not, and how well they remmeber computer-derived information and advice. p86

How far will this go? I think, 3 to 10 more years from now.

20250927 - 6: Why Intuition Isn’t Helping You Get a Job

Computer helps us improve ourselves, but our capability grow too slowly.

Soon, all input from human are rubbish to AI.

Then what?

AI can think one million times faster than human, and they work 24*365, and robots expand quickly.

And, AI will fully utilize compound effects.

Just like chess grandmasters, they don't do anything unexpected, but each step is correct, and better than human. After one trillion steps, they have everything in their control.

That will happen in 20 years, before 2045.

20250929 - 7: The New Office: Regular, Stupid, and Frustrating

It means that someone out there is able to act without facing much accountability. p129

AI doesn't have skin in the game. How to solve this problem?

20251010 - 8: Why the Turing Game Doesn’t Matter

People don't want to watch computer vs computer on chess.

But we do want to watch horse racing, dog fight, etc.

Why?

Because we don't share gene with computer?

Part III: The New World of Work

20251022 - 9: The New Geography

That means more people and also more immigration, both high-skill and low-skill. p170

It's wrong. Once population passed some threshold, it's friction decides the speed of evolution.

But if you wish to be a high earner, learning from other well-educated people, geographic proximity is growing in importance, whether in companies or in leading amenities-rich cities or most likely in both. p173

How important will geographic proximity be, if self-driving, Starlink, Solar Panel, family battery and robots are populated?

People who work in governmetn, health care, and education just aren't that worried about foreign competitors or even outsourcing. p176

These jobs are supported by government, which force the rich to pay for the poor.

As AI and robots are progressing, the wealth gap will be larger. So less and less rich will be forced to pay for more and more poor. How is this going to end?

20251024 - 10: Relearning Education

In other words, the younger and lesser players can move directly to the best learning strategies employed by the experts. p186

Everyone can learn from AI. How can we make the study more effective?

Motivation could be the major factor which leads to different result.

We see similar issues with online courses and videos: They are great for those who are already inclined to learn more. p188

It's critical to encourage children to read biographies and good books. That's where ambition and curiosity come from.

Above all else, they are masters of reeducation. p203

If everyone were the masters of reeducation, then the social production rate would be 100 times higher. Then the goods and services will be oversupplied many years ago.

It doesn't make sense to expect everyone to become a master of reeducation.

However, it's at least a good point to any specific individual.

20251104 - 11: The End of Average Science

Scientists are turned into freestyle chess player? Not yet, but possibly in a few years.

The hard part is still inspiration, which that AI still has no idea.

20251106 - 12: A New Social Contract?

The measure of self-motivation in a young person will become the best way to predict upward mobility. p230

Regardless of the increasing importance of assets? From ASI point of view, maybe. But in the initial 20 to 50 years, assets could be more important than self-motivation. The one who own assets can hire those self-motivated people, until ASI take away everything, or make the human society doesn't matter anymore.

Many Americans will end up living in areas with cheaper housing and low-quality public services, if only to give themselves more cash in their pocket. p242

In the future, the low-quality public services will likely be good enough.

Low living cost area share some features that are dismaying. There are less trust between people, law is less respected, income is lower, and productivity is lower. These are the reason that Mexican want to migrate to USA.

But, if AI is in charge of law enforcement, and most of the labor work is done by robots, these won't be problem anymore. Starlink, EV, Solar Panel and battery, etc. can make countryside much more attractive.

Government debt and the relevant interest are not real problems. The real problem is whether we can keep the supply and demand of Goods&Services balanced.

It seems that, whether we like it or not, increasing inequality and growing domestic peace are compatible. p252

Why? Most of people don't want to use violence if they can reach basic living condition.

And the force is more rely on "assets" now, such as camera everywhere, mobile phone, GPS, no cash and security card.

Most envy is local. p257

That's where the real threat is coming from.