Book: 20251007 to 20251102, "Same as Ever" by Morgan Housel

20251007 - Introduction

Our characteristics will not change. At least to most of people.

20251007 - Hanging by a Thread

"And then what?" p14

This is the critical part to tests the limits of our perception.

20251008 - Risk Is What You Don’t See

The fact that you can't see it coming is exactly what makes it risky. p18

Black Swans. Only extra buffer can intimigate the problem, and only deep understanding of the world can make us choose the right position.

Expectations and forecasts are two different things, and in a world where risk is what you don't see, the former is more valuable than the latter. p21

20251008 - Expectations and Reality

"If you only wished to be happy, this could be easily accomplished; but we wish to be happier than other people, and this is always difficult, for we believe others to be happier than they are." p23

Investor Charlie Munger once noted that the world isn't driven by greed; it's driven by envy. p24

20251008 - Wild Minds

20251009 - Wild Numbers

Most of people only need to learn three parts of Math.

1. Elementary Arithmetic

2. Elementary Algebra

3. Elementary Probability Theory

20251009 - Best Story Wins

Mark Twain said, "Humor is a way to show you're smart without bragging." p57

"But the good stories are about one plus one equals three." That's leverage. p58

The point is the content, and the story is the form. How do I know that they are consistent?

How do I know that the point is correct? The first principles?

20251019 - Does Not Compute

The world is not a digital world. In most of cases, there is no accuracy.

Is that similar to Quantum Theory?

20251019 - Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy

Bayes' theorem.

How to handle it? It's best avoiding the center of the herd of the cattle, and also avoid the edge of it.

20251019 - Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast

Fish with slowed-down growth in their early years go on to live 30 percent longer than average. p85

Why's that?

Same as reducing food intake?

20251019 - When the Magic Happens

Stress keeps us moving forward.

That's why we should be pessimistic in short term.

20251019 - Overnight Tragedies and Long-Term Miracles

Even bad things are caused indirectly by compound effect.

We don't die all of sudden. Our death are caused by accumulated risks and damages.

20251020 - Tiny and Magnificent

Grand masters win by accumulating tiny advantages.

20251020 - Elation and Despair

Be a pessimist in short term, and be a optimist in long term.

20251020 - Casualties of Perfection

We should not be too busy, and we should keep some money in saving account(short-term government bonds).

But, how can we avoid wasting time in thinking or doing meaningless? Just like how to stop spending on luxery but meaningless goods?

20251101 - It’s Supposed to Be Hard - 124

Charlie Munger: The safest way to try to get what you want is to try to deserve what you want. p126

Jeff Bezos: Every job comes with pieces you don't like. p127

How to avoid unnecessary hardship? "Think hard, think ahead" is the key.

20251101 - Keep Running

For decades, scientists assumed that the longer a species had been around, the more likely it was to stick around, because age proved a strength that was likely to endure. p135

This is what Taleb believed. Surely wrong.

It's more about their capabilities to adapt to the changes of the environment instead of their strength.

How about sharks and jellyfish? Shark is close to perfection, and jellyfish is almost emerged into ocean.

Is the future of human closer to the perfection of Shark style?

For tools, it's decided by the first principles.

20251101 - The Wonders of the Future

Thomas Edison is no doubt a great visionary.

20251101 - Harder Than It Looks and Not as Fun as It Seems

No one's life is spectacular all the time.

The difference is that some people spend their time on hard thinking and working, while most of people's mind is wander around most of time and doing nothing meaningful.

If AI brings us UHI, that's going to be a big problem.

Will most of people become zombies?

20251101 - Incentives: The Most Powerful Force in the World

He replied: "Definitely there is always conscience. But poverty will not make you feel the pain." p150

This is why poverty is scary. It drives most of people doing bad things.

So everyone keeps paddling long after the market becomes unsustainable. p152

Why the financial recession was so serious in 2008? This is one of the reason.

It also happens to society collapse. What should we do to protect ourselves when that happens?

20251102 - Now You Get It

Comedian Trevor noah from South Africa: "If you find the right balance between desperation and fear, you can make people do anything." p157

20251102 - Time Horizons

Long term investment is based on faith of long term trend.

For example, the black swans will appear from time to time, and wealth come from creativity and fair social institution.

The point, then, isn't that you should read less news and more books. It's that if you read good books you'll have an easier time understanding what you should or shouldn't pay attention to in the news. p167

True. And it is good to read less news and more good books.

20251102 - Trying Too Hard

Simple things often rely on compound effect to show their power, including the learning curve.

Complex tools may get things fixed quickly, but the cost could be quite high.

To our lives, simplicity is better in most of cases.

20251102 - Wounds Heal, Scars Last

How should we handle it? Prepare for the black swans, be brave, but leave enough safety margin.

20251102 - Questions

Wrong questions.

It's better to focus on the fundamental stuff. The first principles.